WORX anticipates commercial real estate investment to recover to around 3 billion euros in 2026

WORX Real Estate Consultants launched WMarket Review Year-end 2025–2026, its biannual research publication, which analyses the evolution of commercial real estate (CRE) in Portugal and points to a scenario of greater confidence in 2026, after a year marked by market resilience. The study includes contributions from six leading figures, including Mário Centeno, who offer different perspectives on the economy and the CRE market.

The Year-end 2025–2026 edition of WMarket Review confirms the Portuguese CRE market’s ability to adapt in an international context was still marked by economic and geopolitical uncertainty. In 2025, Portugal attracted more than 2.75 billion euros in CRE investment, spread across 89 transactions, representing a 14% increase compared to 2024.

This performance was sustained by several factors, including the stabilisation of interest rates, national political stability and Portugal’s positioning as a safe haven market in the European context. At the beginning of 2025, these factors led to a 25 basis point compression in prime yields, with the exception of prime shopping centres, which reinforce the relative attractiveness of the national market.

Pedro Rutkowski, CEO of WORX, emphasises: “In 2025, the Portuguese market proved to be one of the most resilient and best performing in the international context, confirming the consistent return of capital despite global uncertainties”. He adds: “Investment in CRE could return to around 3 billion euros in 2026 if conditions of stability and confidence remain in place.”

Offices

Demand for office space in Greater Lisbon reached a total volume of 204,200 sq.m of take-up last year, down 8% from 2024. Even so, this performance ranks the year as the fifth best since records began, thus highlighting the strength of the segment.

Demand remains active, although the current macroeconomic context is prolonging decision-making cycles and making asset selection criteria more demanding, with the same expected in 2026.

The CBD (zone 2) and Parque das Nações (zone 5) areas accounted for the highest volumes of take-up, with 46% and 18%, respectively. Of particular note is the occupancy of state entities in the João XXI 63 building (zone 2), with an estimated area of 34,200 sq.m, and the advance purchase of two buildings in the new EntreCampos project (zone 2) by Banco de Portugal, with a total of 32,000 sq.m.

Prime rents in Greater Lisbon stood at €30.0/sq.m/month, maintaining a sustained upward trend, especially in buildings with sustainability certifications and premium features. WORX anticipates that prime rents in 2026 will exceed €35.0/sq.m/month.

Retail

In 2025, Portugal recorded the highest increase in retail sales in Europe, thanks to the recovery in domestic consumption, still high savings levels and the continued contribution of tourism. The average sales index reached 115.3 points, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5%.

This environment has driven the entry of new brands and emerging formats into the physical market and boosted the sector in all its segments. As a direct consequence, prime rents have already exceeded pre-pandemic levels: €145.0/sq.m/month for high street retail in Lisbon, €115.0/sq.m/month for shopping centres and €13.0/sq.m/month for retail parks.

The appreciation of prime locations continues to be supported by the scarcity of quality spaces and resilient demand, which strengthen the position of retail as one of the most robust segments of the market.

Industrial & Logistics

In turn, the industrial and logistics sector saw a 39% slowdown in absorption last year, after a particularly strong year in 2024, with 485,000 sq.m of take-up. This development reflects a natural adjustment in a context of greater economic and political uncertainty. Prime rents maintained a positive trend, standing at €5.65/sq.m/month in the Castanheira–Azambuja prime axis and €7.00/sq.m/month in Lisbon, demonstrating the growing importance of proximity to the end consumer.

For 2026, WMarket anticipates a recovery in demand to average levels seen in recent years, driven mainly by nearshoring, reshoring and investments in the defence sector.

Tourism

In 2025, overnight stays in tourist accommodation grew by 2%, totalling 82.1 million, with a particular highlight to the 5% increase in overnight stays by residents. In 2025, revenues grew by 7% and operating performance increased by 4%, translating into €7.15 billion in revenues and an average RevPAR of €72.4.

Operating indicators continue to reflect a positive trajectory, supported by external demand and the repositioning of the national product at a higher value-added level. However, the study anticipates that significant growth in demand may be constrained by the macroeconomic context forecast for 2026.

Residential

The residential markets in Lisbon and Porto Metropolitan Areas continued to perform well. In Lisbon, 9,310 apartments were sold in 2025, at an average price of €5,200/sq.m, 10% above the 2024 sale price. In Porto, 5,460 apartments were sold in 2025, at an average price of €3,810/sq.m, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% in the sale price.

In 2026, the market will continue to benefit from sustained levels of demand, with a direct impact on the positive evolution of prices. In addition, the measures announced in the housing sector could create favourable conditions for the development of the large-scale institutional rental market (PRS – Private Rented Sector or Multifamily), long-awaited by players in the sector.

Macro trends in real estate

WMarket Review also identifies a set of structural macro trends with a cross-cutting impact on real estate for the coming years. Among these, the growing integration of technology and artificial intelligence is accelerating the digitisation of buildings and cities, while the human experience is taking on an increasingly central role in value creation.

In this context, the hybridisation of uses, the versatility and flexibility of spaces, capable of responding in real time to people’s needs, are establishing themselves as key drivers of urban transformation. The study concludes that it is people’s individual decisions that continue to shape the urban, social and economic ecosystem.

With this edition of the WMarket Review Year-end 2025–2026, WORX, with over 30 years of experience, reinforces its role as a leading consultant in the strategic analysis of the CRE market in Portugal, providing an essential tool for decision-making in a cycle of greater maturity and selectivity in the real estate sector.

Read the full report at: WMarket Year-end 2025-2026

February 25th, 2026