Portugal recorded €2.1 billion in commercial real estate investment up to the third quarter, an 11% increase year-on-year. In its latest WOutlook Q3 report, WORX Real Estate Consultants forecasts that annual investment will reach between €2.6 billion and €2.75 billion.
The Portuguese commercial real estate market recorded an investment volume of €2.1 billion between January and September 2026, representing an 11% increase compared with the same period last year. This performance was achieved against a backdrop of international economic and geopolitical uncertainty, with the domestic market maintaining its ability to attract investment.
Retail was the largest sector, attracting approximately €620 million in investment, accounting for 30% of the total volume. Hospitality followed, with close to €610 million, equivalent to 29%. Together, the two sectors accounted for approximately €1.23 billion, highlighting their significant contribution to investment activity up to the third quarter.
Among the main transactions during the period was the acquisition of Arrábida Shopping and Gaia Shopping for €180 million, the largest transaction of the year identified by WORX. In the hospitality sector, the sale of a 72% stake in Corinthia Lisbon to Orion Capital Managers for approximately €150 million was one of the sector’s most significant transactions.
The alternative sector also recorded a significant share, accounting for 10% of total investment. This was led by the sale of several data centres, which have become increasingly attractive assets for investors amid the ongoing artificial intelligence revolution.
Foreign capital continues to play a decisive role in market activity, accounting for approximately 68% of investment recorded up to September. Among international investors, those from the United Kingdom, France and Spain stand out, reflecting continued interest in Portuguese real estate assets amid the positive momentum across the Iberian Peninsula.
As regards benchmark yields, the outlook for the remainder of the year is one of stability, supported by the dynamism of the Portuguese market.
Silvia Dragomir, Head of Research at WORX, estimates: “For the full year 2026, commercial real estate investment is expected to range between €2.6 billion and €2.75 billion, representing a year-on-year change of between -5% and 0%. Projections point to a more substantial recovery in investment levels towards pre-pandemic levels in 2027.”
Pedro Rutkowski, CEO of WORX Real Estate Consultants, comments: “Despite international economic and geopolitical uncertainty, Portugal continues to establish itself as an investment destination, underpinned by its strategic location, stability and resilience. The commercial real estate market maintains positive momentum, with opportunities across several segments. In the office sector, occupiers are increasingly prioritising location, quality and comfort. In retail, shopping centres and retail parks continue to attract investors, while logistics is benefiting from business and industrial expansion. Portugal’s growing international profile has also driven segments such as student accommodation, senior living, flex-living and hospitality, including new concepts linked to agritourism and nature-based tourism.”
He adds: “To sustain this growth, confidence will be essential, particularly in the residential sector. Meanwhile, industrialised construction and on-site energy generation solutions could help increase supply, improve efficiency and reduce costs.”
The WOutlook Q3 brings together the latest data on the Portuguese commercial real estate market and includes periodic quantitative forecasts. It is the first report in Portugal to regularly publish year-end projections for the sector’s key indicators.
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