At the end of the third quarter of 2024, we have launched the Outlook Q3 2024 reports on the Commercial Real Estate Investment Market in Portugal and the Lisbon Office Market, with a detailed analysis of the third quarter of 2024.
These reports present an analysis of the market in the third quarter of the year, with the main trends for the coming months.
Based on the in-depth knowledge of our Research, Capital Markets e Agency, we draw conclusions about macroeconomic forces, the behavior of players and the attractiveness of the sector in this context.
At the same time, the report “Europe CRE 180” by BNP Paribas Real Estate was launched, with contributions from Worx in the context of the BNP Paribas Real Estate Alliance Network. The publication highlights the first signs of a recovery in the investment market in Europe, evidenced by the 8% increase in capital allocated to commercial real estate in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period last year, along with the stabilization of prime yields in the main markets.
With regard to the national context, the following conclusions stand out from the 2024 balance sheet and the main trends that should guide the coming months:
- The Portuguese economy has had its growth revised downwards to 1.6% in 2024 by the Bank of Portugal, after a slight slowdown in the second and third quarters of the year. Even so, it should grow above the Eurozone average, which is expected to be 0.8% this year.
- Investment in commercial real estate in Portugal amounted to around one billion euros up to September, a figure consistent with the same period last year. The third quarter of the year saw the largest transaction of the year so far, with the acquisition of Alegro Montijo by Lighthouse Properties for €177.8 million.
- In the period under review, retail was consolidated as the most attractive sector, with more than 30% of capital invested, following the growth trend seen last year. In this context, there is a greater appetite among investors for supermarkets and retail parks.
- In addition, there has been a clear recovery in investment in offices, while hotels remain attractive and are consolidating their position as the second most attractive sector.
- The investment market remains resilient, although there is no sign of the long-awaited growth, due to the effect of lower interest rates and improved financing conditions. Investment in 2024 is expected to be close to two billion euros, but a sharper increase is only expected in 2025.
- The office sector recorded an occupancy volume of 168,546 m² in Greater Lisbon up to September, with demand more than doubling compared to the same period last year, even surpassing the total absorption of 2023.
- In the third quarter, one of the year’s main operations took place, with Deloitte occupying the entire Rato 11 building (zone 2), with more than 8,000 m².
- Zones 5 (Parque das Nações) and 3 (Emerging Zones) achieved the highest take-up volumes (32% and 25% respectively). However, Prime CBD saw the biggest increase in the number of deals, which almost doubled, confirming companies’ greater appetite for central locations.
- As a result, absorption of office space is expected to be close to 200,000 m², emerging as one of the best results for the office market in the last 10 years.
Regarding this launch and this analysis, Pedro Rutkowski, CEO of WORX, points out that “these are signs of a clear recovery in demand for office space, which should consolidate next year. WORX is proud to have participated in the sale of more than 60,000 m², including three of the largest transactions to date, with a market share of close to 40%”.
See the full reports at: Outlook Q3 2024 – Lisbon Office Market and Outlook Q3 2024 – Comercial Real Estate Investment.
October 8th, 2024
